Crypto Crafters

On Oct. 2, the US Securities and Exchange Commission filed a notice of appeal in the Ripple lawsuit seeking to overturn an earlier ruling.

The agency has appealed a 2023 verdict set by Judge Torres, which ruled that secondary sales of Ripple’s XRP token did not constitute securities sales.

The judge ruled that XRP failed to satisfy all the conditions for the SEC’s Howey test to be classified as an investment contract.

The filing was shared by defense lawyer James Filan on X.

#XRPCommunity #SECGov v. #Ripple #XRP BREAKING: The @SECGov has filed a Notice of Appeal of Judge Torres’s Ruling. pic.twitter.com/j8bLIZQ5LT

— James K. Filan (@FilanLaw) October 2, 2024

Ripple Fights Back

Ripple chief legal officer Stuart Alderoty said the appeal was “disappointing, but not surprising.”

He added that this just prolongs what is “already a complete embarrassment for the agency.”

“The Court already rejected the SEC’s suggestion that Ripple acted recklessly, and there were no allegations of fraud and, of course, there were no victims or losses.”

He said that the SEC “continues to engage in litigation warfare against the industry” before adding that the firm is evaluating whether to file a cross-appeal.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse also addressed X on Oct. 3, stating that if SEC chair Gary Gensler and the regulator were rational, “they would have moved on from this case long ago.”

He vowed to continue fighting as long as necessary:

“While we’ll fight in court for as long as we need, let’s be clear: XRP’s status as a non-security is the law of the land today – and that does not change even in the face of this misguided – and infuriating – appeal.”

If Gensler and the SEC were rational, they would have moved on from this case long ago. It certainly hasn’t protected investors and instead has damaged the credibility and reputation of the SEC.

Somehow, they still haven’t gotten the message: they lost on everything that…

— Brad Garlinghouse (@bgarlinghouse) October 2, 2024

Candidate for Massachusetts Senator John Deaton unleashed a tirade on X, stating that a candidate wouldn’t typically comment on an appeal:

“However, I’m not your typical candidate and I spent hundreds of pro bono hours and over $75K of my own money, fighting gross overreach and misconduct at the SEC.”

Almost four years after suing Ripple and making the above ridiculous claims, SEC lawyers apologized (in a different case) for suggesting tokens themselves were securities, he said before adding:

“Because the SEC is pursuing an anti-crypto agenda, it will now waste more taxpayer money. Gary Gensler is a disgrace.”

XRP Tanks

The news has rattled XRP holders who have been aggressively selling the asset, resulting in a 12% slump on the day.

The asset was trading above $0.60 on Oct. 2 but crashed to bottom out at just below $0.53 during early trading in Asia on Thursday morning.

XRP is currently at a three-week low and still trading down 84% from its January 2018 all-time high despite recent ETF applications.

Bitcoin’s price is currently trending down as a result of the potential war brewing in the Middle East. A key level is lost, which could lead to a further decline in the short term.

Technical Analysis

By Edris Derakhshi (TradingRage)

The Daily Chart

In the daily timeframe, the BTC price dropped below the key $64K mark and the 200-day moving average, which is located around the same price mark. Currently, the $60K support level remains intact, as investors remain hopeful that this decline is a temporary pullback.

However, with the RSI also showing values slightly below 50%, the momentum is shifting bearish, and a move lower toward $56K remains a possibility.

The 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart demonstrates a clear bearish shift in market structure in terms of classical price action. The market has decisively broken an important bullish trendline to the downside. Yet, the price bounced from the $60K level, as the RSI has also shown an oversold state in momentum.

Meanwhile, a complete rebound is still less probable, as the market structure suggests a deeper correction toward the $57K level is more likely. This scenario would, of course, fail if the price somehow climbs back above the $64K level soon.

On-Chain Analysis

By Edris Derakhshi (TradingRage)

Bitcoin Open Interest

While Bitcoin’s price has been dropping over the past few days, future market sentiment metrics are still overheated.

This chart presents the BTC open interest, which shows the number of open perpetual futures positions, both bullish and bearish.

As the recent drop suggests, the minimal decline in open interest indicates that a long liquidation cascade has not occurred yet. A capitulation event would be highly probable in the event of a further price decline, which could lead to a rapid market crash and push the price even lower toward the $50K area.

What a difference a couple of days makes, from bullish ‘Uptober’ momentum to bearish price predictions.

Bitcoin slumped around $4,000 in the wake of the Iranian missile attack on Israel, and negative sentiment has seeped back onto crypto social media.

However, zooming out shows that BTC is still within its range-bound channel, which has continued for the past half a year.

A Fall to $40K Possible?

On Oct. 2, ITC Crypto founder Benjamin Cowen painted a very gloomy picture based on historical price action following Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

Bitcoin rallied for two weeks following the first rate cut in 2019. However, it then tanked to the 100-week moving average in the months that followed.

If history rhymes, a similar fall to the same technical indicator would put BTC prices back at around $42,000 by mid-November, he said.

Just to offer a different view to consider other than the “up only” view mostly shared on this platform, in 2019, #BTC rallied for 2 weeks after the 1st rate cut, then dropped to the 100W SMA 2 months later, which would correspond to mid-November. pic.twitter.com/ogicF89JrM

— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) October 2, 2024

However, the suggestion does not take into account that 2019 was the middle of a bear market, and it was not a halving year, which makes a difference.

Nevertheless, other analysts also suggested something similar but provided no rationality, later describing it as a ‘shitpost.’

This was the $BTC test dump for 40k. Bearish. pic.twitter.com/vbmszAMHmb

— Altcoin Sherpa (@AltcoinSherpa) October 1, 2024

As market analyst Miles Deutscher pointed out in a post on X on Oct. 1, there are plenty of reasons to remain bullish.

Increasing global liquidity through M2 money supplies, rate cuts, which are usually good news for riskier assets, China’s economic stimulus measures, an approaching US election where crypto is a focus, and a traditionally bullish period for crypto in Q4 are some of them.

On Oct. 2, ‘Ash Crypto’ told his 1.1 million X followers that this was “a big shakeout.” He added that October will start with a dump, and we will see a sideways chop for most of the month before things lift off.

Miner Profitability Slumps

Nevertheless, Bitcoin miners may have a reason to be bearish. According to JPMorgan analysts, Bitcoin mining profitability hit a recent low in September.

Daily block reward gross profit decreased 6% month-over-month in September, marking the third consecutive month of decline. The drop in revenue has been largely attributed to the Bitcoin halving event in April. However, transaction fee revenue for the month was only $13.86 million, observed Colin Wu.

Rumors abound on crypto social media suggesting that the embattled exchange FTX will start distributing as much as $11 billion to creditors on Oct. 1.

“MartyParty” told his 116,000 X followers to sell their ETH, ADA, and DOT before this week’s distributions while shilling SOL and SUI.

Meanwhile, crypto advisor Dan Held told his 720,000 X followers, “$16B in distributions from FTX will start happening tomorrow,” but suggested that degens would buy back in.

“Crypto Rover” also added to the FUD misreporting that FTX distributions would begin this week to his 840,000 X followers.

Debunking The FUD

However, the truth is a little different, so there is little need for panic selling or any of the FUD. According to official documents, FTX’s legal team will attend a court hearing on Oct. 7th to finalize the repayment plan, so there will be no distributions this week.

Moreover, if the revised plan is approved, smaller claims under $50,000 may begin receiving distributions by the end of 2024. Larger claimants may not see any distributions until the first or second quarter of 2025.

On Sept. 29, FTX creditor activist Sunil Kavuri said large (X) accounts were “spreading false info.” However, he estimated that half of the claims, around $5.5 billion worth, won’t be reinvested in crypto.

FTX Distribution

False: Large accts. spreading false info, FTX distribution has started and/or start on 1st Oct etc and $16bn inflow
7th October: Plan hearing

Approx No.
Est. $5.5bn claims bought (50%) – not crypto investors – won’t reinvest in crypto

Claims

— Sunil (FTX Creditor Champion) (@sunil_trades) September 29, 2024

In June, creditors led by Kavuri objected to the repayments favoring reimbursement with in-kind assets rather than cash, which would be taxable.

CNBC crypto trader Ran Neuner also dispelled the FUD stating that distributions would start within 60 days of the plan becoming effective.

FTX DISTRIBUTIONS DO NOT BEGIN TOMORROW.

Here are the facts:⁠ ⁠

– October 7, 2024 court hearing will take place to confirm FTX’s Chapter 11 plan of reorganization.
– ⁠⁠If approved, it will pave the way for repayments to begin.
– Post-Hearing Payments: Payments are… pic.twitter.com/7uTG5qwP8v

— Ran Neuner (@cryptomanran) September 29, 2024

Despite the unfounded FUD, crypto markets were selling off during Monday morning trading in Asia. Total capitalization had fallen by 2.7%, with Bitcoin dropping to the $64,500 level after topping $66,000 over the weekend.

FTX Token Surges

The native token for the embattled crypto exchange, FTT, has surged more than 50% over the past 24 hours. The exchange asset spiked to a seven-month high of $2.70 on Sunday before retreating to $2.19, which was still up 51% on the day.

FTT has now gained more than 70% over the past fortnight, largely driven by reimbursement rumors. However, the asset still remains down 97.5% from its all-time high of $84 in September 2021.

Bitcoin’s price has broken post a key level recently and is seemingly targeting a new all-time high in the short term.

Technical Analysis

By Edris Derakhshi (TradingRage)

The Daily Chart

On the daily chart, the price has finally broken above the $64K level and the 200-day moving average, which is located around the same mark.

With the RSI also showing a clear bullish momentum, the cryptocurrency will likely continue its uptrend toward the $68K resistance zone in the short term.

Otherwise, in case of a correction, the 200-day moving average is still likely to hold the price and push the market higher.

The 4-Hour Chart

Looking at the 4-hour timeframe, the price has been creating higher highs and lows ever since its rebound from the $52K support level.

The market’s bullish move has created a clear trendline, which has been supporting Bitcoin for weeks. If this trend remains intact, it will only be a matter of time before the market reaches the $68K level.

On the other hand, if the trendline gets broken to the downside, at least a pullback to the $60K level would be probable.

On-Chain Analysis

By Edris Derakhshi (TradingRage)

Bitcoin Short-Term Holder SOPR

During the recent Bitcoin price consolidation and gradual correction, many short-term holders, even those not in profit, panicked and sold their coins. This chart shows the Bitcoin Short-Term Holder SOPR, which measures the ratio of profits/losses realized by short-term investors.

As the chart suggests, the STH SOPR made a new record high when the price hit $70K first, but it has rapidly declined during the past few months. Short-term holders have even been realizing losses since July, as the metric has dropped below one. However, with the recent price rally, these investors are now realizing profits once again.

While this is a natural behavior in bull markets, if the selling pressure resulting from this profit-taking is not met with sufficient demand, the price could drop lower again.

Bitcoin’s correlation with Wall Street has been climbing for the past several months and, earlier this week, hit a multi-year peak.

This comes at an intriguing time since a few of the largest and most prominent US stock market indexes charted new all-time highs this week.

BTC-Wall Street Correction Rises

The Fed’s interest rate cut from last week didn’t impact positively just crypto as Wall Street headed north as well. Additionally, the Friday US macro data shows that inflation has slowed to 2.2% from August last year. This came from the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, which some people believe is a more accurate inflation gauge for individuals.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average reacted immediately with an increase from 41,921 to 42,616 to register a new all-time high. Despite retracing slightly by the trading day’s end, the Dow was still slightly in the green.

The S&P 500’s performance was similar, as it pumped from 5,722 to over 5,760 to paint a new ATH of its own before correcting to 5,738 at closing bells.

The Nasdaq Composite failed to break its ATH marked in July and even finished the day with a minor retracement.

At the same time, BTC’s price surged past $66,500 on Friday for the first time in two months. According to IntoTheBlock data, these developments increased the positive correlation between Wall Street and bitcoin, pushing the metric to a two-year high.

$BTC‘s correlation with U.S. stocks reached a two-year high this week, a level that was only surpassed in the second quarter of 2022. pic.twitter.com/in6YRZq2Iw

— IntoTheBlock (@intotheblock) September 27, 2024

When BTC New ATH?

CryptoPotato reported recently that bitcoin’s correlation with gold had also increased to a multi-month peak. The yellow metal’s price has been on a roll as well in 2024, charting fresh peaks frequently. The latest was on Thursday at just shy of $2,690/oz.

As such, the logical question arises: when will BTC break its March all-time high of $73,800? With such a high correlation with assets that have done just that in the span of a week, BTC remains more than 10% away from its own.

Historically, Q4 has been predominantly positive for the largest cryptocurrency, with an average return of roughly 90% in the past decade. Moreover, October and November are the two most bullish months for BTC, which, coupled with the aforementioned data, could mean that a new all-time high is just around the corner.

Changpeng Zhao, the founder and former CEO of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, has served his four-month prison sentence and has been released from custody as of Friday.

Although he has stepped down as the chief executive of Binance, he is still the largest stakeholder.

Recall the events that took place almost a year ago when the US Department of Justice announced a massive $4.3 billion settlement with the then-CZ-led exchange.

This came after years of investigations from different entities, and Binance, as well as its founder, pled guilty to willfully floundering the Bank Secrecy Act.

Zhao’s guild plea was for failing to implement a strong anti-money laundering (AML) program. He had to step down as the CEO of Binance and paid a $50 million penalty.

In late April, CZ was also slapped with a four-month prison sentence, which was a lot less than the requested three years. At the time, he said:

“I will do my time, conclude this phase, and focus on the next chapter of my life (education). I will remain a passive investor (and holder) in crypto. Our industry has entered a new phase. Compliance is super important. A silver lining of this whole process is that Binance has been under the microscope. And funds are SAFU. Protect users!”

His sentence was supposed to end on September 29, but because it falls on a Sunday, he was released on the last working day before the weekend – Friday.

Binance’s native token performed well during this week when CZ was supposed to be released. It’s up by 6% on a seven-day scale and sits well above $600. According to some reports, Zhao still owns about 64% of BNB’s total supply.

CZ has said before that he already has ideas of what to do upon his release from prison. Called Giggle Academy, the project will aim to provide free education in a gamified and adaptive manner.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX, believes the time has come for a meme coin breakout. As a result, he has added some tokens to his portfolio to maximize his returns.

A series of tweets from the American entrepreneur revealed that he has been purchasing several meme coins, including Pepe (PEPE), Mother Iggy (MOTHER), and Mog Coin (MOG).

Incoming Meme Coin Season?

Earlier this week, Hayes posted a tweet asking American rapper and celebrity Iggy Azalea, also the creator of MOTHER, if she could be his mother – a move aimed at expressing his support for the songwriter’s token.

Hayes admitted he was wrong about his prediction that the recent Federal Reserve rate cut would strengthen the Japanese yen and crash risk assets like bitcoin (BTC). Since the cryptocurrency held up well over the last weekend, he believed it was an opportunity to let the good times roll.

“Time to trade some dogshit meme coins,” he added.

In subsequent posts, Hayes stated that he doubled his MOTHER position, is “martingale’ing” the token, and looks forward to the meme coin’s market cap skyrocketing to $1 billion. Data from CoinMarketCap showed Mother Iggy’s market cap stands at $986 million at the time of writing.

In the early hours of Friday, Hayes disclosed that he is also acquiring more MOG and PEPE, inviting his friend to join the spree. On-chain data accessed by blockchain intelligence platform Lookonchain indicated that Hayes has already withdrawn 24.39 billion PEPE worth roughly $252,680 from crypto exchange Binance.

“It’s time for a memecoin breakout. I respect my $MOTHER, I $MOG like no one else, but I can’t neglect $PEPE. Yachtzee Bitches!” Hayes stated.

Not Just Meme Coins

A separate tweet from Lookonchain revealed that Hayes is not just bullish on meme coins. The crypto enthusiast has been purchasing millions of Aethir (ATH), the native token of the decentralized cloud infrastructure project Aethir, since mid-August.

Most of the funds used to purchase ATH have come from the sales of Hayes’ Pendle (PENDLE) stash. The entrepreneur said his family office fund, Maelstrom, has been reducing its PENDLE position to fund a “special situation.” Regardless of the sales, the fund still believes PENDLE has the potential to lead the crypto interest rate derivatives market; hence, Hayes remains bullish on the asset.

Following Hayes’ latest ATH purchase Friday morning, the BitMEX co-founder’s stash has grown to 116.63 million ATH worth approximately $7.5 million.

This week, we examine Ethereum, Ripple, Cardano, Shiba Inu, and Dogecoin in greater detail.

Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum closed another good week with a 4% price increase. Buyers remain interested and managed to push the price above $2,600. The current target is $2,800, which will also act as key resistance.

Momentum slowly turned bullish in September, and the price escaped the downtrend that started in March. This has brought back optimism to the market, and ETH stands to benefit from it as well.

Looking ahead, the price is well-placed to test the current resistance in the near future. If, for any reason, sellers return, then ETH has good support at $2,400.

Ripple (XRP)

XRP continues to be flat, and its price didn’t move at all compared to last week. This is a bit unusual, especially when compared to the overall market, where Bitcoin and most altcoins, particularly meme coins, are making higher highs.

The price is stuck just under 60 cents, and buyers were unable to break it in September. If the bulls manage to do that, momentum could return to this cryptocurrency.

Looking ahead, XRP’s volume is in decline and has struggled to perform well lately. Until momentum and volatility return, it’s unlikely to see the price make any major moves.

Cardano (ADA)

ADA had a great week after closing with a 12% increase. This momentum comes after buyers managed to break above 36 cents, which kept the price in check for most of this month.

At the time of this post, bulls are trying to confirm the 40 cents level as key support. If they are successful over this coming weekend, then Cardano has a great shot at moving higher to the next key target, 48 cents.

Looking ahead, momentum favors a continuation of this price action, which can quickly see ADA move higher. That will bring it much closer to 50 cents, a price that was lost back in May.

Shiba Inu (SHIB)

Meme coins are back in the spotlight, and Shiba Inu is no exception. Its price exploded this week, increasing by a mind-blowing 34%. This has put SHIB back on the map, and buyers are rushing to get exposure.

After the price found good support at $0.000014, buyers became confident, and volume shot up to levels not seen since the bottom in August. This has quickly taken the price down to just under the key resistance of $0.000020.

Looking ahead, SHIB has a good chance of testing this level next. Once there, sellers may return and take the price into a pullback. The RSI on the daily timeframe is overbought at 81 points. It’s best to remain cautious.

Dogecoin (DOGE)

DOGE also had an excellent week after closing with a 16% price increase. Considering that its market capitalization is almost double that of SHIB, DOGE needs many more buyers and more volume to achieve a similar performance.

The price action has turned bullish, and the current target is 13.5 cents. Since buyers are dominating right now, DOGE has a good chance to hit this key level before any major pullback.

Looking ahead, it appears meme coins are performing very well again, and this could last as long as the overall market remains optimistic. If so, DOGE could aim to reach 20 cents in the medium term and revisit that level from March 2024.

[PRESS RELEASE – San Francisco, California, September 19th, 2024]

The Civic ID Verification Pass provides real-world benefits to users who can verify their identity and age quickly and rent a car directly from a car owner, without intermediaries

Civic, a leader in tokenized identity on the verifiable web, joins forces with Rentality, the first web3 car rental platform, to securely and efficiently verify drivers’ licenses and enforce age minimums on the Base network. This advanced verification process using blockchain introduces a new standard for security and compliance in car rentals, and peer-to-peer marketplaces.

Through the Civic ID Verification Pass, Rentality users can verify their driver’s license virtually to rent a car. This technology reduces friction, enhances trust between both parties, and removes the logistical burdens of physical verification.

“For car rental and peer-to-peer businesses to reach the greatest number of users while ensuring safety, there is a need for reliable and compliant verification processes that do not unduly inconvenience users. With the Civic ID Verification Pass, users can verify their identity without publicly revealing sensitive information and providers can comply with know-your-customer (KYC) requirements”, said Chris Hart, CEO of Civic. “By working together, Civic and Rentality encourage the safety of drivers and cars belonging to owners in line with regulatory requirements without needing in-person verification.”

According to the team, the growing need for real-world benefits for users has been a major theme of focus in the crypto industry, which has been in infrastructure development mode. In an economy that now increasingly prefers renting to owning, this integration exemplifies how tokenized identity can create secure, compliant, and user-friendly verification solutions that meet the needs of everyday users and digital-first businesses.

“The integration of blockchain with car rentals is not just a vision of the future, it’s a reality today in Miami and later in the rest of the States. Now you can rent a car directly from your smartphone or laptop using your crypto wallet,” said Oleksandr Tatura, CEO of Rentality. “We’re proud to partner with Civic, a company that is at the forefront of adopting innovative technologies.”

Conventional car rental processes typically require multiple intermediaries, from payment processors to insurance companies. This raises the price of car rentals significantly, as every middleman incurs a charge. With the use of blockchain, Rentality streamlines these processes by providing a decentralized marketplace for car renters and owners to transact directly.

To rent a car through Rentality, users simply need to connect their wallet, register for an account, choose their preferred car, location, and confirm prices. Then, they can verify their driver’s license by obtaining a Civic ID Verification Pass, which is a non-transferable token that is retained in their wallet. Civic ID Verification Pass is already integrated into the Rentality sign-up process and can be obtained with a selfie video and scan of their driver’s license.

Users can pay with various cryptocurrencies. Rentality is already operating in Miami and will soon expand to other regions. Users can visit rentality.xyz to rent or lease their car.

About Civic Technologies

Civic is a leading provider of identity management tools for web3, empowering people to easily and privately manage their identities across chains with an on-chain representation of their reusable identity. The company’s flagship product, Civic Pass, is an integrated permissioning tool that helps business customers enable secure access to their on-chain assets. Users may also manage their identity, presence and reputation with a dashboard. Civic aims to be the most trusted on-chain identity tool in the world, used by billions every day. Civic was co-founded in 2015 by Vinny Lingham and Jonathan Smith.

About Rentality.xyz

Rentality is pioneering the car rental industry as the first Web3 car rental platform. Their platform offers a seamless, transparent, and cost-effective solution for car rentals, utilizing blockchain technology. Rentality integrates a unique bonus system, their own token, and NFTs tied to real-world vehicles. These vehicles will be available for rent on Rentality’s platform, enabling NFT owners to potentially earn from rentals. The platform has already launched in Miami and is rapidly expanding, with leading hosts in the region joining us. They aim to extend their services across all states, providing a comprehensive and innovative solution for both renters and hosts. And that’s just the beginning of what they offer.